Paris Predictions
Our Team
This is the smallest Australian Olympic Triathlon Team ever sent to an Olympic Games. Given the fiasco of Tokyo, with athletes claiming to ‘jog’ and save themselves to make the selection for the mixed team relay, a smaller team is probably a good thing. No one will be left out of the relay, so everyone can race without the selection committee threatening non-selection.
Today’s athletes have never been a part of a successful sport in Australia. They have not been racing on TV every weekend, have never raced in front of crowds of 60,000+ or more on home soil and have no opportunity to become a household names. Their ability to earn a living out of the sport is almost zero because of the terrible governance of AUS Triathlon (Triathlon Australia under disguise with a new name, but old staff and habits). These athletes should be commended for their resilience to remain in a sport that gives them little financially in return.
So who is in the team? Most Australians wouldn’t have a clue….
The team is led by Matt Hauser, who has to be Australia’s best male medal chance ever. Luke Willian is in the best form we have seen from him and at 28 years old is at the peak age to throw everything into a race of a lifetime.
The women have not shown form coming into Paris. Natalie Van Coevorden has been below her previous level of performance, but now the non selection fiasco of Tokyo is behind her and selection for Paris ahead of her she can finally race without the ‘BS’. Our final team member Sophie Linn hasn’t shown form over the full triathlon distance in 2024, so is at best a top 20…
Our team needs to perform - things have never been so dire for Australian triathlon. If Paris is a disaster, that will be the 3rd Olympics Australian triathlon has not delivered a medal. Funding will slip further, and AUS Triathlon (Triathlon Australia) will turn to the State and Territory Associations (STTA’s) and demand a higher percentage of their membership dollars to have some money coming in. This will send some STTA’s broke and hardly keep the sport afloat. With no whole national race series, and nothing to sell, AUS Triathlon will struggle to find any real sponsors who will commit serious financial support for Triathlon.
Hopefully the Australian Sports Commission will step in and clear the decks post Paris, because no one at AUS Triathlon currently has the ability to turn things around. The CEO is clueless, the President self absorbed and the Board - who knows what that lot are doing. What is clear - none of them care and one day all will walk away with no accountability. It’s the athletes that are missing out, the athletes who will be blamed for poor performances and the athletes who have less and less opportunity available to them.
So what of Paris…. let’s all hope results are better than Tokyo. I think they can be. Just.
Meet our team members…
Matthew Hauser
26 Years Old
2nd Olympic Games (24th Tokyo)
Olympic Qualification – Automatic (top 8 in Pontevedra World Championship final)
Rankings
World Triathlon Ranking 7
WTCS Series Ranking 2
World Triathlon Olympic Qualification 5
Continental Ranking 2
World Triathlon Race Stats
59 starts, 28 podiums, 19 wins
Recent Results - World Triathlon Results Olympic Qualifying Periods 2023/2024
13 July 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Hamburg - 1st Elite Men 50:03
11 May 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - 2nd Elite Men 01:42:12
20 Apr 2024 World Triathlon Cup Wollongong - DNS Elite Men
14 Apr 2024 Oceania Triathlon Championships Taupo - 1st Elite Men 01:47:20
23 Sep 2023 World Triathlon Championship Finals Pontevedra - 8th Elite Men 01:43:04
18 Aug 2023 World Triathlon Olympic Games Test Event Paris - DNS Elite Men
16 Jul 2023 World Triathlon Sprint & Relay Championships Hamburg - 6th Mixed Relay 00:18:55
14 Jul 2023 World Triathlon Sprint & Relay Championships Hamburg - 5th Elite Men 00:19:33
24 Jun 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Montreal - 1st Elite Men 00:53:47
13 May 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - 2nd Elite Men 01:42:17
03 Mar 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Abu Dhabi - 18th Elite Men 00:53:42
Australian men have never won a medal at the Olympic Games for Triathlon and Matt Hauser is Australia’s best chance we have ever had.
During the first period of Olympic Qualifying, Hauser had his breakthrough win at WTCS level – winning the Montreal event in June 2023. The win however was over the sprint distance, which of course the Olympic Games is raced over double this. He had another great result in Yokohama in 2023, finishing 2nd recording the second fastest run (out splitting Wilde) and running well under 30minutes for the 10km. Hauser also looked the fittest he has ever looked.
It was the close of the 2023 season that Hauser then secured his automatic Olympic selection, by finishing 8th at the Pontevedra event (a top 8 was required).
Hauser is not an excessive racer, but his results in 2024 have continued his best form in his career so far – at the elite level. Back in April he won the Oceania Championships in Taupo this was full distance. Still with a run over 31 minutes, the critics still weren’t convinced. Wollongong was a DNS, so the next time we saw Hauser race back in Yokohama, Japan WTCS. The wait was worth it..
Finishing second in a solid field (although Yee and Wilde were notably missing) Hauser looked every bit the world class triathlete he has become. His only fault was a section of the run just after 5km he seemed to lose concentration and drop to the back of the pack he was running in. He recovered and finished second, only 18 seconds off first. If you believe what athletes write in their socials, apparently Hauser believes the winner Morgan Pearson that day had a better ‘zone 5’. If this is what Hauser watches in a race, he needs to ignore ‘zone 5’ and just go after it, because he showed he could finish stronger than anyone...
These obsessions with data while racing become even more damaging when you consider the closeness of the Paris test event, lapses in effort really need to be a focus for Hauser if he is going to medal in Paris. The test event saw the top 10 athletes all run within 3sec per km of the winner Yee. Yee also ran a low 29min 10km with time to slow, celebrate and walk the last few steps. The key to Hauser doing well lies heavily on his ability to not only run to his best but also kick home with the best and remain focussed throughout.
Since Yokahama, Hauser has raced some French tour races and won the final tune up WTCS race in Hamburg over the sprint distance again. Hauser looked strong in Hamburg - the main contenders were missing, but he out ran the field. A good sign for Paris.
What does Matt Hauser need to do in Paris to better his chances?
In a nutshell – tire out the runners by making the swim and bike harder...
The drag to the first buoy is 440m, which is over 140m longer than usual. Hauser – as a strong swimmer – needs to work hard to try to string out the field. French athlete Vincent Louis who normally likes to take the swim out is not going to be in Paris, so athletes need to make sure they take control of the swim in his absence. The benefit of stretching out the swim is that on the return to end of lap 1, swimming against the current has shown the field will break up with ‘weaker’ swimmers finding the river current a struggle without feet to ‘sit on’. Breaking up and leaving athletes such as Alex Yee (GBR), Hayden Wilde (NZL) and Kristian Blummenfelt (NOR) is very important. Once out on the bike Hauser needs to remain at the front of the pack he finds himself in to avoid the unnecessary accelerations into and out of the 10 corners on each lap. The run will require his full absolute concentration, and another sub 30minute low 29minute effort.
Hauser was unable to start the Paris test event in 2023, having tested positive to covid. Some athletes made comment of him missing from the event, so he is very much seen as a big-time player to his competitors. He would be well advised to look at the data from these test events – particularly the French.
Prediction
Here’s Hoping - Outside minor medal chance
Most Likely – Top 10
Luke Willian
28 Years Old
Olympic Debut
Olympic Qualification – Automatic (finished 3rd, required a top 8 Yokohama WTSC)
Rankings
World Ranking 12
WTCS Series Ranking 1
Continental Ranking 3
Olympic Ranking 21
World Triathlon race stats
97 starts, 29 podiums, 12 wins
Recent Results - World Triathlon Results Olympic Qualifying Periods 2023/2024
13 July 2024 World Triathlon Championships Series Hamburg - 11th Elite Men 50:49
25 May 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Cagliari - 8th Elite Men 01:40:50
11 May 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - 3rd Elite Men 01:42:20
20 Apr 2024 World Triathlon Cup Wollongong - 1st Elite Men 00:52:51
24 Mar 2024 World Triathlon Cup Hong Kong - 4th Elite Men 00:53:38
17 Mar 2024 Oceania Triathlon Sprint Championships Devonport - 1st Mixed Relay 00:00:00
16 Mar 2024 Oceania Triathlon Sprint Championships Devonport - 2nd Elite Men 00:54:01
24 Feb 2024 World Triathlon Cup Napier - 25th Elite Men 00:51:10
28 Oct 2023 World Triathlon Cup Miyazaki - 24th Elite Men 01:49:48
21 Oct 2023 World Triathlon Cup Tongyeong - 23rd Elite Men 00:51:21
14 Oct 2023 World Triathlon Cup Chengdu - 7th Elite Men 01:44:31
23 Sep 2023 World Triathlon Championship Finals Pontevedra - 28th Elite Men 01:44:49
18 Aug 2023 World Triathlon Olympic Games Test Event Paris - DNF Elite Men
29 Jul 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Sunderland - 39th Elite Men 00:57:50
24 Jun 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Montreal - DNF Elite Men
27 May 2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup and Championships Port Douglas - 3rd Elite Men 01:41:54
13 May 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - 32nd Elite Men 01:45:49
28 Apr 2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup Busselton - 1st Elite Men 00:17:36
26 Mar 2023 World Triathlon Cup New Plymouth - 21st Elite Men 00:57:53
03 Mar 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Abu Dhabi - 39th Elite Men 00:54:41
25 Feb 2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup Taupo - 3rd Elite Men 00:54:04
17 Feb 2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup Wanaka - 7th Elite Men 00:49:01
To be honest, Luke Willian didn’t have a hope in hell qualifying for Paris 12 months ago if he had left it in the hands of the selectors. The brains trust that is the woeful AUS Triathlon High performance program had dropped Willian from the athlete categorisation program – a sure sign the selectors are no longer breathing any oxygen into your elite triathlon career.
Fortunately, Willian ignored the rejection and forced selection with an automatic qualifier.
Just goes to show who really has the power in Australian Triathlon – the athletes. No one should overlook the message in this performance from Willian and his team. You don’t need to lower your standards to fit in – you just need to provide selections with zero option of leaving you out.
This is an Olympic debut for Willian, having already represented Australia at the Commonwealth Games. Apart from his first race in 2024 (Napier was a clanger) Willian has finished in the top ten in all (except Hamberg overnight - he was 11th) and finishing on the podium in 4 of the 6.
Willian is a solid performer in all disciplines, but raced poorly in the Paris test event. He wasn’t in his current form though, which puts him within shot of the fastest runners but remaining outside the medals.
What does Luke Willian need to do in Paris to better his chances?
Willian would be well advised to shadow his Aussie teammate Hauser. He needs a good swim and a safe sit on the bike. The test event in Paris saw the entire field come together on the bike, some athletes making up a minute lost in the swim, so the bike and run is the vital part of the mens race.
Willian will need to run faster than he did in Yokohama to really be in the mix - a low 29min 10km will be required to medal. Not impossible, but the fastest he has ever gone will be required. In the last tune up race before Paris - WTSC Hamburg - Willian was 11th - showing his run speed is the key to him performing well in Paris. He needs to find more.
Prediction
Here’s Hoping – Top 10
Most Likely – Top 20
Natalie Van Coevorden
32 Years Old
Olympic Debut
Olympic Selection – Discretion (Triathlon Australia Elite Selection Committee)
Rankings
World triathlon Ranking 62
WTCS Series Ranking 46
Continental Ranking 4
Olympic Ranking 35
World Triathlon Career Stats
128 starts 18 podiums 4 wins
Recent Results - World Triathlon Results Olympic Qualifying Periods 2023/2024
13 July 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Hamburg - 22nd Elite Women 56:49
25 May 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Cagliari - DNF Elite Women DNF
11 May 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - 35th Elite Women 01:57:32
14 Apr 2024 Oceania Triathlon Championships Taupo - 10th Elite Women 02:08:36
16 Mar 2024 Oceania Triathlon Sprint Championships Devonport - DNS Elite Women
24 Feb 2024 World Triathlon Cup Napier - 31st Elite Women 00:59:52
14 Oct 2023 World Triathlon Cup Chengdu - 11th Elite Women 01:59:24
07 Oct 2023 World Triathlon Cup Rome - 12th Elite Women 01:00:15
24 Sep 2023 World Triathlon Championship Finals Pontevedra - 21st Elite Women 01:55:51
20 Aug 2023 World Triathlon Mixed Relay Series Paris - 14th Mixed Relay 00:20:34
17 Aug 2023 World Triathlon Olympic Games Test Event Paris - 19th Elite Women 01:54:34
16 Jul 2023 World Triathlon Sprint & Relay Championships Hamburg - 6th Mixed Relay 00:22:01
14 Jul 2023 World Triathlon Sprint & Relay Championships Hamburg - 27th Elite Women 00:22:12
24 Jun 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Montreal - 32nd Elite Women 01:00:25
27 May 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Cagliari - 16th Elite Women 01:49:34
13 May 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - 14th Elite Women 01:56:02
08 Apr 2023 Arena Games Triathlon Finals London powered by Zwift - 12th Elite Women 00:25:27
03 Mar 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Abu Dhabi - 26th Elite Women 00:59:28
Van Coevorden was the athlete who should have been selected for Tokyo 2020 (2021) but was unfairly overlooked. At that stage she was the highest ranked Australian female athlete by far in the World Triathlon rankings and her non-selection was an appalling and unpopular decision. The backlash from the Tokyo Olympics disaster, including the HP reviews of Triathlon Australia has ensured the discretionary selections made for Paris 2024 have a little more athlete respect with them. Nonetheless, the selection may be 4 years too late for Natalie, as she was at her performance peak for the Tokyo Olympics.
A prolific racer, Van Corvorden has started more World Triathlon events than any other athlete in the world in 2023/4. It is not clear if this is because she loves to race or whether racing is the approach to improve fitness. Regardless, the excessive race starts seeming to be damaging Van Coervorden’s ability to perform in 2024. The problem with racing a lot is twofold – an athlete cannot train properly, and over racing also makes an athlete stale. Racing should be used to perform, not gain fitness. When too much racing is attempted, very high repeated levels of excellent performances become increasingly difficult. With broken periods of training between the repeated racing, the athlete enters a period of actual decline in performance.
Van Coevorden’s performances in 2024 have been below her standard, and she would be aware she needs to perform better in Paris. Having a form turnaround from poor to excellent in a month is extremely rare, but in elite sport nothing should be considered totally impossible.
Expect to see Van Coevorden in the front pack on the bike. She had a good swim at the test event and handled the current and conditions of the river Seine well. Van Coevorden is always ‘solid’ on the bike and should remain in the front pack throughout. It is the run that will be the overwhelming problem for Van Coevorden. In the Paris test event the front bike pack had 18 athletes in it. Natalie finished 19th overall , so had one of the poorest runs of the group. Stating the obvious, this will have to improve if a top 20 is to be achieved.
What does Natalie VanCoevorden need to do in Paris to better her chances?
It was clear from the test event that the key to making the front pack on the bike was simply achieved by using the draft of Taylor Nibb (USA) as she rode through the field. Nibb was 18th out of the water, and the front pack consisted of 18 riders. I would expect the Nibb will be a lot more aggressive in the real event than the test event, as qualifying was the goal last year and an Olympic Gold is the priority this year. The bike will be ridden differently, but still expect to see Van Coevorden exit the water in the top 10, so should still also make the front pack. The front pack of women can all outrun Van Coevorden, so she has a monumental problem once the bike is over.
Hopefully recent time has been spent on speed and lifting her run technique. It is a big ask though to turn this run form around in such a short period.
Prediction
Capable of a top 20, but the form hasn’t been there this year. Top 25-30.
Sophie Linn
29 Years Old
Olympic Debut
Olympic Selection – Discretion (Triathlon Australia Elite Selection Committee)
Rankings
World Triathlon Ranking 68
WTCS Series Ranking 31
Continental Ranking 5
Olympic Ranking 63
World Triathlon Career Stats -
44 starts, 10 podiums, 4 wins
Recent Results - World Triathlon Results Olympic Qualifying Periods 2023/2024
13 July 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Hamburg - 21st Elite Women 56:47
25 May 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Cagliari - 22nd Elite Women 01:50:03
11 May 2024 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - DNF Elite Women DNF
25 Feb 2024 World Triathlon Mixed Relay Series Napier - 1st Mixed Relay 00:19:21
24 Feb 2024 World Triathlon Cup Napier - 1st Elite Women 00:56:35
28 Oct 2023 World Triathlon Cup Miyazaki - 9th Elite Women 02:01:22
21 Oct 2023 World Triathlon Cup Tongyeong - 29th Elite Women 01:00:22
24 Sep 2023 World Triathlon Championship Finals Pontevedra - 30th Elite Women 01:57:05
14 Jul 2023 World Triathlon Sprint & Relay Championships Hamburg - 20th Elite Women 00:00:00
24 Jun 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Montreal - 24th Elite Women 00:59:43
13 May 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama - 41st Elite Women 01:59:08
08 Apr 2023 Arena Games Triathlon Finals London powered by Zwift - 3rd Elite Women 00:36:59
26 Mar 2023 World Triathlon Cup New Plymouth - 5th Elite Women 01:03:33
18 Mar 2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup and Sprint Championships Devonport - 4th Elite Women 01:00:45
18 Mar 2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup Devonport - 4th Elite Women 01:00:45
25 Feb 2023 Arena Games Triathlon Series Montreal powered by Zwift - 2nd Elite Women 00:38:31
Sophie Linn was the obvious selection for Paris. She is the only female to have won a World Triathlon event in 2024. This win was in the Napier World Triathlon Cup, so not a top tier WTCS event. Australian athletes who are being selected for major games should be expected to win races at this level, so it cannot be seen as a standout performance for an Olympic athlete.
Linn’s other races for the year have been a DNF in Yokohama, a 22nd in Cagliari and 21st in Hamburg – all races had a fuller field than her World Cup win and only Hamburg was also raced over the Sprint distance. In all major WTCS races, Linn has finished outside the top 20.
Linn races very infrequently and when she has in 2024 has been disappointing in the run, particularly the closing stages. Finishing 21st and one place ahead of Van Coevorden in the Hamburg final tune up event, she did not show much improvement on her 2024 form so far. Will go into Paris underperforming.
Linn is an athlete who races well over shorter distances and is lacking in the speed endurance required for a top 10km run. She did not contest the Paris Test event, so untested on a course she would have benefitted from knowing how to race. Sophie will need to put together the best classic distance race she has ever done come Paris.
Prediction
Best case scenario a top 20 would be an excellent result, given recent form top 25-30 would be expected for Linn.
Newsletter August 1 - How will our AUS Mixed Team Relay perform?
Once world class, and lapped in Tokyo how does the Paris AUS Relay stack up?
With the individual events raced in Paris, read my predictions on August 1 for the Mixed Team relay.
Sign up to the emmacarney.com newsletter here